ABSTRACT
Background: Identifying clinical-features or a scoring-system to predict a benefit from hospital admission for patients with COVID-19 can be of great value for the decision-makers in the health sector. We aimed to identify differences in patients' demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiological findings of COVID-19 positive cases to develop and validate a diagnostic-model predicting who will develop severe-form and who will need critical-care in the future. Methods: In this observational retrospective study, COVID-19 positive cases (total 417) diagnosed in Al Kuwait Hospital, Dubai, UAE were recruited, and their prognosis in terms of admission to the hospital and the need for intensive care was reviewed until their tests turned negative. Patients were classified according to their clinical state into mild, moderate, severe, and critical. We retrieved all the baseline clinical data, laboratory, and radiological results and used them to identify parameters that can predict admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Results: Patients with ICU admission showed a distinct clinical, demographic as well as laboratory features when compared to patients who did not need ICU admission. This includes the elder age group, male gender, and presence of comorbidities like diabetes and history of hypertension. ROC and Precision-Recall curves showed that among all variables, D dimers (>1.5 mg/dl), Urea (>6.5 mmol/L), and Troponin (>13.5 ng/ml) could positively predict the admission to ICU in patients with COVID-19. On the other hand, decreased Lymphocyte count and albumin can predict admission to ICU in patients with COVID-19 with acceptable sensitivity (59.32, 95% CI [49.89-68.27]) and specificity (79.31, 95% CI [72.53-85.07]). Conclusion: Using these three predictors with their cut of values can identify patients who are at risk of developing critical COVID-19 and might need aggressive intervention earlier in the course of the disease.
ABSTRACT
The severity of coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is associated with neutrophil extracellular trap (NET) formation. During NET formation, cytotoxic extracellular histones are released, the presence of which is linked to the initiation and progression of several acute inflammatory diseases. Here we study the presence and evolution of extracellular histone H3 and several other neutrophil-related molecules and damage-associated molecular patterns (DAMPs) in the plasma of 117 COVID-19-positive ICU patients. We demonstrate that at ICU admission the levels of histone H3, MPO, and DNA-MPO complex were all significantly increased in COVID-19-positive patients compared to control samples. Furthermore, in a subset of 54 patients, the levels of each marker remained increased after 4+ days compared to admission. Histone H3 was found in 28% of the patients on admission to the ICU and in 50% of the patients during their stay at the ICU. Notably, in 47% of histone-positive patients, we observed proteolysis of histone in their plasma. The overall presence of histone H3 during ICU stay was associated with thromboembolic events and secondary infection, and non-cleaved histone H3 was associated with the need for vasoactive treatment, invasive ventilation, and the development of acute kidney injury. Our data support the validity of treatments that aim to reduce NET formation and additionally underscore that more targeted therapies focused on the neutralization of histones should be considered as treatment options for severe COVID-19 patients.